CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2026-02-16T13:23:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, BepiColombo, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-16T19:03:37Z
## Message ID: 20260216-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2026-02-16T13:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~1029 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 26 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -17/-3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2026-02-16T13:23:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), BepiColombo, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-02-17T05:09Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME may reach Juno at 2026-03-05T00:00Z and Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-17T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-02-18T10:34Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-02-16T13:23:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_162800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_162800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_162800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_162800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_162800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_162800_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_162800_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260216_162800_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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